Statistics prove lady luck deserted Déise

In his seminal book Moneyball, Michael Lewis observed that the play-offs could frustrate the hell out of some of the most progressive front offices in baseball because it offered such a small sample size.

Statistics prove lady luck deserted Déise

With the regular season a 162-game slog-marathon, they could easily identify trends, strengths, and weaknesses. A bad performance or a slice of bad luck amounted to essentially an irrelevance, like Man City losing the odd game — by the odd goal — under Pep.

Over a long season,” Lewis wrote, ”the luck evens out, and skill shines through.

The play-offs were essentially “a giant crapshoot”, where a Wigan could knock a Man City out. In a five-game first-round series, the worst team in baseball still had a 15% likelihood of beating the best side in the sport. Which is why Billy Beane, the general manager of the Oakland As, the central character in Lewis’s classic and a champion of the new analytics movement, hated the vagaries and randomness of the play-offs. It “mocked reason”.

With only four guaranteed games, a Beane may have struggled to get his head around this year’s provincial hurling championships, but compared to what was in place previously, it would be manna for a data geek like him.

In the past, the top scorer in a provincial or All-Ireland championship was often determined by which team had played the greater number of games. You could average five points from play in your two championship games for the year, both against the eventual All-Ireland finalists, and there wouldn’t be a chance your name would appear among the top 20 scorers of the summer.

This year, everyone in Munster played the same number of games, against the same opposition.

Your proficiency and consistency can shine through.

So when we crunch the numbers, what does it tell us?

Well, for one, that it’s not by accident Cork and Clare are contesting this year’s Munster final.

Even when you throw in every player in this year’s Leinster championship, the top four scorers from play over the provincial championships are all from the two teams that will face off in Thurles on Sunday week.

And what will please as well as surprise Clare fans is that the top two scorers from play are both from the Banner.

John Conlon’s form and rejuvenation is illustrated by the data which shows he’s already racked up 1-14 from play this summer, an average of 4.25 ppg, having never failed to score at least twice in any of his championship outings so far.

And while there’s a feeling that Tony Kelly has regularly drifted in and out of game so far this summer, the Ballyea man is tied in first with Conlon, having likewise shot 1-14 from play and his lowest return being 0-2 — though those two points shortly before half-time against Tipp were probably the two most important points he or anyone else for Clare has scored this summer.

Tony Kelly
Tony Kelly

Trailing just a point behind them in third place is Seamus Harnedy, on 2-10. Although he drew a blank against Limerick, he racked up 1-3, 1-2, and 0-5 from play in his three other games.

Two points further back from him is Patrick Horgan, a model of consistency, something you wouldn’t always have described the Glen man. Although all the leading freetakers in the country — Canning, Reid, O’Mahony, Forde, Dooley — have been racking up the numbers this summer, Horgan — as well as piling over 0-20 deadballs over Cork’s four games — leads the way from play with 1-11 (which is 1-8 more than TJ has managed).

Tied in joint fourth spot is one of the few bright spots for Waterford this summer — Tommy Ryan, who struck for a goal in all three losses to Clare, Limerick, and Cork to finish with a total of 3-5.

Just a further point behind then is Conor Lehane, on 1-10, just a point ahead of teammate Shane Kingston (1-9) who is tied with the two Conors from Galway, Cooney (0-12) and Whelan (2-6) on an average of 3.0 ppg, meaning four of the top nine scorers in this year’s championship are from Cork.

Conor Lehane
Conor Lehane

Tied in 10th then were Joe Cooney (1-8), Joe Bergin (2-5), Dublin’s Paul Ryan (3-2), and Noel McGrath (1-8) who finished just a point ahead of his brother John (0-10).

By most standards that would be respectable shooting from the Loughmore brothers, as would Jason Forde’s 2-3 from play, but not by Tipp standards. The most alarming and striking stat from their forward line, though, is that Bubbles O’Dwyer only mustered the one point and two starts for the whole championship.

Some honourable mentions. Joe Canning averaged three points from play before he was rested for the Dublin game. Cian Lynch is the country’s leading scorer from midfield, with 0-9 from play over the course of the campaign, scoring in all four games to date.

As for scoring overall, naturally the freetakers rule. Jason Forde leads the way on 3-39 (1-36 from deadballs), just ahead of Peter Duggan (1-42, 1-38 from deadballs), TJ Reid (2-37, 1-34 from deadballs), Canning (1-32, 1-23 from deadballs — and three games), and Horgan’s 1-31 (0-20 deadballs).

Jason Forde
Jason Forde

As for teams, Galway are the leading scorers so far in this championship by a point, their tally of 110 (7-89, an average of 27.5 ppg), one ahead of Cork and Clare who, it should be noted, were in the considerably more competitive provincial championship.

More telling is that Galway and Clare each have the best defensive as well as offensive record in their respective provinces, Clare conceding one point less than Limerick (with an average of 23.3ppg) and Galway three points less than a tight Wexford setup (with an average of 20 ppg).

Other striking trends. The numbers confirm what we thought: Tipp bought too much into this idea about needing to rotate your squad. They used 22 different starters — with just eight players starting every game. Contrast that to Clare (17 starters, 12 ever-presents), Cork (18 starters, 12 ever-presents), and Limerick (17 starters, 13 ever-presents).

And yet those three sides who have made it through to the All-Ireland series have utilised their squad. Cork have given game time to 23 players, just one fewer than Tipp did. Clare have used 24. Limerick have used 26.

No manager, though, had to switch up his team more than Derek McGrath.

After starting, obviously, with 15 players in the opening game in Ennis, McGrath ended up giving 12 further players a start in their three subsequent games.

Only six players started all four games. And one of them, Noel Connors, didn’t come out for the second half in two of those games due to injury.

Luck balancing out over a season? Not in Waterford’s case anyhow.

more courts articles

Former DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson arrives at court to face sex charges Former DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson arrives at court to face sex charges
Case against Jeffrey Donaldson to be heard in court Case against Jeffrey Donaldson to be heard in court
Defendant in Cobh murder case further remanded in custody Defendant in Cobh murder case further remanded in custody

More in this section

Paul Rouse: Irish access to sport is too dependent on social class S Paul Rouse: Irish access to sport is too dependent on social class
Antrim v Dublin - Allianz Hurling League Division 1 Group B S Ian Mallon: GAA losing up to €1m per year in counterfeit jersey battle 
Derry v Donegal - Ulster GAA Football Senior Championship Quarter-Final S Tommy Martin: Unreasonable disruptor McGuinness pulls off a very modern heist
ieStyle Live 2021 Logo
ieStyle Live 2021 Logo

IE Logo
Outdoor Trails

Discover the great outdoors on Ireland's best walking trails

IE Logo
Outdoor Trails

Sport
Newsletter

Latest news from the world of sport, along with the best in opinion from our outstanding team of sports writers

Sign up
Cookie Policy Privacy Policy Brand Safety FAQ Help Contact Us Terms and Conditions

© Examiner Echo Group Limited