Brexit is not the only challenge facing the EU
With just over four months to go to March 29 and the likely exit of the UK from the EU, there was always a chance and a hope that from a situation of crisis, wiser heads would prevail and some sort of deal would be agreed upon.
Lo and behold, this week some sort of deal has been agreed upon, at least between the EU and the UK negotiation side.
It is still way too early and dangerously premature to suggest that we are starting to see some daylight after two years of darkness, but at least we now appear to be moving in the right direction.
From an Irish perspective, the best outcome would obviously be a re-consideration of the whole notion of leaving the EU and maintaining the strong EU relationship we have had with the UK since we joined the free-trade bloc together back in 1973.
The second best outcome would have been a deal whereby a hard border with the North would be avoided and tariff-free trade would continue between the UK and Ireland.
The deal agreed, this week, appears to tick most of the boxes in regards to the latter outcome.
However, there is still a long way to go before we can remotely sound the all clear.
Getting cabinet approval is one thing, but it will prove much more challenging to get parliamentaryapproval for the deal over the coming weeks and particularly agreement from the DUP.
The reaction from the usual suspects within the Tory party is hard to understand.
They suggest that the deal agreed will destroy British sovereignty, but the reason for pushing Brexit in the first place is a belief that Britain didn’t have any sovereignty in the EU anyway.
How can one lose something that one allegedly did not have in the first place, or at least, not since 1973?
As we here in Ireland look ahead to 2019, despite some progress on Brexit, a high degree of caution is warranted.
After a pretty decent year for the global economy in 2017, as this year has progressed the global challenges, which had never really and fully gone away, are starting to raise their heads above the parapet again.
Next year looks set to present many intense challenges for global policymakers, and as a very small and very open economy, Irish policymaking will have to be dictated by these global developments, rather than by the whims of public sector unions, populist politicians, and others who are getting increasingly restless.
Apart from the Brexit issue, the future stability of the EU is under serious threat from political developments in countries such as Hungary, Austria, Italy and Poland, while the ongoing budget battle with Italy could have very significant implications for future fiscal and economic governance within the EU.
To date, the EU stance in the Brexit negotiations has been driven primarily by the unwillingness to compromise on the four key pillars and foundation stones of the EU, namely the freedom of movement of goods, services, people and capital.
Any compromises on these principles could be potentially very problematical, given the evolving complexion of EU politics.
Of course, the future evolution of those politics will be thrown up in the air when Angela Merkel exits the political stage.
The focus will then shift to President Macron of France to provide strong EU leadership, but the jury is still out on his ability to carry the baton.
At a recent event in the North,I was musing on the stupidity of Britain walking away from the EU, but an audience member was very vocal in suggesting that Britain would be better off out of the EU, before it falls apart.
It is hard to disregard the longer-term challenges threatening the survival of the EU, but Ireland is still better off within the union, as indeed is Britain.
It is now vitally important that the EU seeks to quell the growing political unrest across the union.
The spirit of compromise and flexibility, shown by the EU side in the Brexit negotiations, is somewhat reassuring, but the challenge ahead is still immense.
