British prime minister Theresa May appears dead set on torpedoing her country’s key export product, financial services, with her talk of a clean break with the EU signalling the end of Britain’s membership of the single market.
However, even as talk turns to building an escape raft to Dublin, Paris, or New York, there is little reason for bankers to jump ship immediately.
There are still several steps to go before any Brexodus — and being a first leaver is no advantage yet. The timeframe of Brexit encourages delay, not action.
UBS chairman Axel Weber put it bluntly: “As long as we have market access for two years, the pressure is not that high.”
CEOs of big international financial firms have long been clear that they already have options to relocate their business in Europe. They said this again yesterday.
Ireland is home to subsidiaries of Citigroup and Barclays; HSBC has a base in France.
But why rush when it comes to investing in the eurozone? This is an election year for France, Germany and the Netherlands at a time of populist upsets at the polls.
Relocating people is neither easy nor cheap.
HSBC chairman Douglas Flint described it as “clunky and expensive”.
Ms May’s tough talk does not mean bankers need to walk the walk yet.