Donald Trump’s 1.3bn reasons not to fight with China

In that environment, Mr Trump’s hectoring could stoke nationalism in a year where China’s leaders are already working hard to instil public pride and stress unity.

If Mr Trump’s rhetorical blasts fan Chinese patriotism it could give Mr Xi less room to negotiate without appearing weak at home, raising the odds he retaliates.

That’s even as China’s leaders generally are careful to try and prevent nationalism taking on a life of its own, in case it sets off broader social unrest.

Like prior presidents, Mr Xi uses nationalism to bolster his standing as well as that of the party. Sounding powerful on the global stage, and deflecting provocations from other nations, is one way to foster that.

Since coming to power Mr Xi has expanded the reach of China’s military and stepped up assertions to territory in the South China Sea.

“If the Chinese people perceive Xi Jinping to be bullied by Trump, they will expect a very strong response,” said Paul Haenle, a China adviser to former US president George W Bush and now director of the Carnegie-Tsinghua Centre for Global Policy in Beijing.

“If it gets really bad, you could see nationalism kick in” like the anti-Japan protests of late 2012.

As Mr Xi prepares for a twice-a-decade party leadership reshuffle this year, any provocations carry added risk because he needs to project an image as a strong leader who won’t be cowed by US policy that appears to be aimed at containing China.

Mr Trump’s suggestion he might use the threat of officially recognising Taiwan, which China regards as a province, to get a better trade deal could result in Mr Xi making no concessions on trade at all.

Mr Trump has also complained that China hasn’t done enough to help disarm North Korea, and his pick for secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, proposed blocking China’s access to reclaimed reefs in the disputed South China Sea.

So far China has taken a measured response to Mr Trump. Statements and editorials have strongly reiterated China’s stance on issues such as Taiwan and the South China Sea, but avoided inciting public outcry.

When Mr Tillerson proposed China be denied access to parts of the South China Sea, the party-run Global Times, known for its ultra-nationalist positions, suggested he may have been “coaxing” the foreign relations committee conducting his confirmation hearing.

There would only be a nationalist backlash against the US with Chinese government encouragement, said Anne-Marie Brady, who studies the party as a political science professor at the University of Canterbury in New Zealand.

Still, if Mr Trump accelerates his rhetoric, especially on “core” issues, Mr Xi may have little option but to respond.

“It’s very costly for the Chinese leadership to keep grassroots nationalism in check,” said Jessica Chen Weiss, author of Powerful Patriots: Nationalist Protest in China’s Foreign Relations and an associate professor at Cornell University in New York state.

“If the Trump administration follows through with its casual rhetoric about abandoning the One-China policy, Xi Jinping may unleash popular nationalism to show resolve over Taiwan and rally the public.”